AI – Investing during a technological revolution
1.
Introduction
2.
The state of AI
3.
The path here and onward
4.
Investing in AI
5.
Disclaimer
AI: Investing during a technological revolution
26 June 2023 – AI stands as the defining topic of 2023. Yet, for investors, the landscape and its purported winners appear to shift daily. In this article, we dissect the topic of AI and offer our perspective on navigating this evolving technological revolution.
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Artificial Intelligence, or "AI", has almost overnight transformed from corporate buzzwords to a true technological revolution, accelerating our productivity and unlocking new commercial opportunities. Despite all the talk about AI, there is a lot of uncertainty about its capabilities and path ahead. For investors especially, keeping pace with the rapid progression of the sector makes it difficult to identify which companies are set up to become the future winners. In this article, we offer our perspective on the AI landscape, providing insights into how investors can dissect this sector to better understand the space and the competitive dynamics within.
Introduction
Joakim Dal
Gustav Fridell
Partner
Growth equity 
Associate
Growth Equity
TEAM
Analyst
Chee Meng Ng
Minh Phung
Analyst
Introduction
What is Artificial Intelligence?
The state of AI
Source: GP Bullhound Insights,  ​Reuters, UBS, Similarweb, Alphabet (Google), MIT, CNBC, Axios, Doman Name Stat, Databricks, and Our World in Data
AI is not conscious

It is applied statistics using vast amounts of data
Garbage in, garbage out

Access to quality data is critical and a differentiator
AI is not new

The approach to it and its capabilities are 
Where we are today
the state of ai
New model architectures have enabled the massive leaps in performance and functionality we are seeing in AI
The path here and onward
Sources: GP Bullhound Insights and Twitter 
With more models being launched as open-source, developers from around the world are collaboratively accelerating the advancement of the entire AI field 
While seemingly disruptive at first, each technological revolution ultimately benefits society by propelling humanity forward
AI is quickly moving from a competitive advantage into a competitive necessity
The AI revolution is almost a century in the making
Over the last 10 years
13x
Data1
1,400x
Parameters2
15,000,000x
Computing power3
Sources: GP Bullhound Insights, IDC and Our World in Data
Note: ML = Machine Learning; NLP = Natural Language Processing; 1) Volume of data created and replicated worldwide; 2) Parameters = The AI model's configuration variables, i.e., how many "elements of knowledge" it has that it can create its responses from; and 3) Computing power used to train the largest AI models
Sources: GP Bullhound Insights, State of AI 2022, Our World in Data, and company press releases
Note: Non-exhaustive list of AI models; (#) denotes the model’s parameter count; Parameters = the AI model's configuration variables (i.e., how many "elements of knowledge" it has that it can create its responses from)
Sources: GP Bullhound Insights, MIT Economics, Edelson Institute, Visual Capitalist, OECD, and World Bank
the path here and onward
the path here and onward
the path here and onward
In a domain as advanced as AI, identifying high-quality companies is not easy 
Investing in AI
When investing in AI, the standout companies are identified by understanding the unique market opportunities and competitive dynamics within their respective parts of the value chain
Source: GP Bullhound Insights
Note: Rationale varies on a per-company basis
Some segments of the AI value chain are better preconditioned for startup success 
AI has turned an uncertain macro environment into a bull market for investors
Still rapidly evolving, the AI sector is less distinct than others
The power of big tech cannot be underestimated 
Identifying high-quality companies in AI is difficult
Area of interestProcessing units: Hardware components utilised for AI model training and inference

Optimising processing units for AI compute is still in its early days, with chips optimised for graphics processing largely leading the market. Given the substantial resources directed towards AI computing and considerable room for optimisation, this area will likely see significant evolution in the coming years, fostering new leaders in various niches. 
Area of interest - Proprietary data creation: Companies that generate exclusive data from sensors or human-driven activities

The saying "data is the new oil" is more valid than ever, as AI models can use this data to automate tasks and transform entire sectors. If a company produces its own unique data, it can use this to develop solutions that no one else can, creating a clear and sustainable competitive advantage around its business. 
Area of interest - Development tools: Tools used for training, optimising, and ensuring the quality of AI models

While not all AI models may succeed or be utilised due to intense competition, they all require training. Therefore, development tools used for training, optimising, and assuring the quality of AI models benefit from the overarching AI trend, even if the models they train may not succeed. 
Area of interest - Domain-specific foundation models: AI models with a foundation of knowledge that are adapted for various downstream applications

With vast resources and scale, big tech companies have the upper hand when it comes to training AI models in the general domain. However, niche domains present a different set of competitive dynamics, with other actors having access to the data, and consequently, the power to create the best AI models in them. 
Area of interest - Novel workflows: Apps using AI to enable novel workflows, distinct from merely improving existing ones

Any application introduced as an AI-enhanced alternative to an existing application or as a feature to a platform will likely become redundant when that incumbent platform implements the same AI features. However, AI applications that enable entirely new workflows do not face the same threat.
Sources: GP Bullhound Insights, Capital IQ, Global X by Mirae Asset, Forbes, Bloomberg, and company press releases (as of 31 May 2023)
Note: 1) The NASDAQ:AIQ ETF invests in 85 public companies operating across development and utilisation of artificial intelligence technology in their products and services
Sources: GP Bullhound Insights, Pitchbook, Marcaria, and company press releases
Note: 1) "AI" companies per Pitchbook’s category "Artificial Intelligence & Machine Learning"
Source: GP Bullhound Insights
Note: Categorisations are illustrative and non-exhaustive
INVESTING IN ai
INVESTING IN ai
INVESTING IN AI
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